The study found that the tiny Bounty Islands support about 27,800 breeding pairs, rivaling the 29,800 pairs on the Antipodes Islands despite the latter being 40 times larger. Historical records indicate the Antipodes population has plunged by more than 40 percent since 1995 due to climate-driven storms, landslides, and shifting ocean conditions. Furthermore, native skuas increasingly prey on penguin eggs and chicks, fragmenting the shrinking colonies as their collective defenses weaken. Researchers also suspect differences in oceanic feeding grounds and migration routes may contribute to the contrasting trajectories.
Key points
Shrinking colonies on the Antipodes face worsening predation by skuas as their collective…: Shrinking colonies on the Antipodes face worsening predation by skuas as their collective defenses continue to break down.
A past collapse of Eastern Rockhopper penguins likely drove local skuas to target Erect-c…: A past collapse of Eastern Rockhopper penguins likely drove local skuas to target Erect-crested penguin eggs and chicks.
Diverging migration routes and oceanic feeding habitats may explain why populations on on…: Diverging migration routes and oceanic feeding habitats may explain why populations on one island thrive while the other declines.
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- Date:
- November 14, 2026
- Source:
- University of Otago
- Summary:
- A groundbreaking drone survey has revealed a startling split in the fate of New Zealand's endangered Erect-crested penguins. While one population has remained stable for decades, another has declined by more than 40%, apparently due to a combination of predators, worsening storms, and changing ocean conditions. Even more surprisingly, the tiny Bounty Islands support nearly as many breeding pairs as the Antipodes Islands, despite being 40 times smaller.
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A new study from the University of Otago, Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, has revealed a surprising divide in the fortunes of one of New Zealand's least understood penguin species. Although Erect-crested penguins breed in just two remote island groups, their populations are experiencing dramatically different outcomes.
Published in PLOS ONE, the research found that one population has remained stable for at least 25 years, while the other has declined by more than 40 percent over the past three decades.
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