Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, lifting worldwide inventories by 52 million barrels and reversing months of continuous stock draws. While Moscow increased output to 8.73 million barrels daily following diplomatic arrangements with Washington, the International Energy Agency cautioned that diesel supplies remain restricted. The expansion was further aided by non-OPEC nations like Brazil, Guyana, and the U.S., prompting the IEA to raise its fourth-quarter global supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels per day.
Key points
Production growth across the Americas is projected to contribute an additional 1.6 millio…: Production growth across the Americas is projected to contribute an additional 1.6 million barrels per day to global balances this year.
Global crude markets have returned to a net surplus despite persistent refinery constrain…: Global crude markets have returned to a net surplus despite persistent refinery constraints and attacks on critical energy infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency raised its fourth-quarter supply outlook by 3.3 million b…: The International Energy Agency raised its fourth-quarter supply outlook by 3.3 million barrels daily and anticipates a 6.6 million-barrel-per-day increase in 2027.
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Russia's crude oil production rose to 8.73 million barrels a day in October, a 210,000-barrel-a-day surge, as a rebound in Gulf shipments pushes oil markets into a surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
Global supply and stocks have both swelled, though Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure tightened diesel supply, according to the agency's latest monthly oil market report.
"Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to choke off the country's diesel supplies to international markets, adding to losses from the Middle East," the IEA noted.
U.S. President Donald Trump struck a deal with President Vladimir Putin to supply diesel to global markets on Oct. 9. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license authorizing certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027.
Crude supply can rise even as diesel remains tight, with refinery capacity and refined product exports still constrained.
Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, up 2.3 million barrels a day from September, the…
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