Brookings Institution analyst Robert Kagan warns that Moscow and Beijing may ramp up aggression if domestic political shifts signal diminished executive resolve. Compounding this challenge, military commitments defending Israel against Iranian strikes have severely drained American interceptor inventories and diverted three aircraft carriers from the Indo-Pacific. Amid these vulnerabilities, Donald Trump withheld a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan to retain leverage in future bilateral trade talks. Diplomatic channels remain active as officials weigh a high-stakes trilateral summit between the three world powers at an upcoming economic forum.
Key points
Perceptions of American domestic political weakness could embolden adversaries to pursue…: Perceptions of American domestic political weakness could embolden adversaries to pursue aggressive foreign policy objectives.
Resource constraints from Middle Eastern conflicts are directly limiting the military har…: Resource constraints from Middle Eastern conflicts are directly limiting the military hardware available to deter potential aggression in Asia.
Diplomatic discussions are underway to arrange a potential trilateral meeting between the…: Diplomatic discussions are underway to arrange a potential trilateral meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia, and China.
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Russia and China could become more aggressive over the next two years if they conclude that President Donald Trump is politically weakened and on "his way out" after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, Brookings Institution senior fellow Robert Kagan told CNBC.
Speaking on "Squawk Box Asia," Kagan said the war with Iran had also exposed how Washington has "proved itself rather incapable militarily" in terms of capacity, which would be critical in Asia.
"Everybody can see how much our stocks are depleted in terms of interceptors and missiles, which are of vital interest in the Asian theater," he said.
Congressional Budget Office reports have estimated that the conflict depleted as much as two-thirds of U.S. missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, largely because of efforts to defend Israel against Iranian attacks. This could leave the U.S. with constrained inventories for several years.
Kagan said the deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East had reduced the U.S. naval presence available in Asia, potentially giving China more room to act assertively in the region.
A decisive majority of the electorate has rejected the incumbent coalition, presenting rival factions with a realistic path to take power. The emerging political arithmetic opens the door for an unprecedented minority administration reliant on Arab parties to govern. However, significant uncertainty persists over how far-right forces will react and whether they will take steps to disrupt the transfer of power.
The high-level gathering serves as a critical diplomatic prelude to broader trilateral negotiations scheduled in Abu Dhabi aimed at ending the war. Melania Trump's engagement builds on her recent humanitarian work, which earned recognition from Kyiv after facilitating a localized truce in southern Ukraine. Her involvement reflects an expanding soft-power role focused on civilian protection and the repatriation of displaced children.
The defeat of incumbent Karen Bass marks a major progressive shift in municipal leadership for the nation's second-most populous city. Voters ultimately favored an aggressive, accelerated strategy to eliminate street homelessness over establishment-backed approaches to public safety. This outcome delivers City Hall to an urban planner backed by grassroots and left-leaning organizations.