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MCX gold prices fall Rs 1,400/10 gram, silver tanks Rs 4,300/kg ahead of Diwali while rate hike bets linger. What should you do?

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Domestic futures suffered sharp losses despite spot gold and silver each edging up 0.3% in global trade. The sell-off was exacerbated by shifting crude oil dynamics, strengthening US manufacturing momentum, and elevated interest rate expectations. Analysts anticipate ongoing market turbulence and suggest accumulating positions systematically on declines rather than chasing short-term rallies.

Key points

  • CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 73% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in…: CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 73% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.
  • Technical support for domestic gold is seen near Rs 1,38,200, while silver support sits a…: Technical support for domestic gold is seen near Rs 1,38,200, while silver support sits around the Rs 1,80,000 mark.
  • Prithvi Finmart analyst Manoj Kumar Jain recommends using systematic investment plans to…: Prithvi Finmart analyst Manoj Kumar Jain recommends using systematic investment plans to accumulate metals during dips ahead of US midterm elections.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

In the domestic market, MCX silver futures for December 2026 delivery were down by Rs 4,300 to Rs 1,83,779 per kg. Gold futures for December 2026 delivery fell by Rs 1,400 to Rs 1,38,823 per 10 grams.

Oil prices dropped more than 7% on Monday after Tehran said discussions with the United States to end their eight-month war were still underway. The latest round of talks between Iran and Qatari mediators concluded after several days, with revised proposals but no breakthrough.

Meanwhile, US manufacturing activity gained momentum in October, supported by strong domestic demand, although inflation at factory gates remained elevated.

Investors are now looking to the US midterm elections for indications of the country's fiscal policy direction and their potential impact on broader market sentiment. Traders currently see a 73% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making bullion less attractive to investors.

Gold, silver international prices

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,960.80 per ounce by 0032…

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