Finance1 min read

Uncertainty is certain: India is resilient and will emerge stronger

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Real GDP expanded by 7.8% in the first quarter of FY27, backed by an 18.2% surge in central government capital expenditure between April and August. Even as foreign portfolio investors withdrew substantial capital, strong domestic participation supported robust primary equity issuances, including Rs 94,205 crore raised through mainboard IPOs. Meanwhile, private corporate capital spending is projected by the Reserve Bank of India to reach Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY27. Furthermore, sanctioned bank project costs hit a record Rs 4.4 lakh crore in FY26, overwhelmingly targeted at new greenfield projects.

Key points

  • Expanding domestic manufacturing, services, and public capital expenditure are sustaining…: Expanding domestic manufacturing, services, and public capital expenditure are sustaining economic momentum well ahead of global growth averages.
  • Local retail investors, insurers, and mutual funds are providing crucial structural depth…: Local retail investors, insurers, and mutual funds are providing crucial structural depth against volatile foreign capital outflows.
  • Corporate capital investment is accelerating with a significant majority of newly sanctio…: Corporate capital investment is accelerating with a significant majority of newly sanctioned institutional financing directed toward greenfield projects.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

At a recent conversation in Chicago, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, spoke about the extraordinary uncertainty confronting the global economy. His observation that the present environment feels different is worth reflecting upon. But uncertainty itself is hardly new. It has been a constant companion of economic and financial markets.

Having spent over three decades in Indian capital markets, I have witnessed this repeatedly. Since 1992, hardly a few years have passed without a major event testing investor confidence. The securities scam of 1992 shook the foundations of our markets. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 exposed emerging-market vulnerabilities. The dot-com bust in 2000, September 11 in 2001, SARS in 2003, the change of government in India in 2004, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the currency crisis in 2013, Brexit in 2016 and Covid in 2020 each brought a fresh set of challenges.

On every occasion, there were fears of prolonged disruption. Markets corrected, capital became scarce and investment decisions were deferred. Yet economies adjusted, businesses reinvented themselves and markets recovered. We emerged stronger, with better institutions,…

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