Democrats hold a double-digit edge from more than 54 million early votes, but strong Election Day turnout from the GOP is expected to determine the overall winners. In the House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip just three seats to win the majority, while their pathway to securing four seats for a Senate majority faces steeper odds on Republican-leaning territory. Initial returns begin after the first polls close at 6 p.m. ET, though full results will not be available immediately.
Key points
Democrats enter the final voting stretch with an advantage built on substantial early vot…: Democrats enter the final voting stretch with an advantage built on substantial early voter turnout nationwide.
Senate control remains precarious for Democrats because most decisive races are in states…: Senate control remains precarious for Democrats because most decisive races are in states Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024.
Official declarations of congressional majorities could take days or weeks as election wo…: Official declarations of congressional majorities could take days or weeks as election workers tally close races across the country.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
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• Hour-by-hour guide: How to watch election night
• 6 things to watch for to see which party might control Congress
• Be patient! It's going to take a while to know who won in some races
More than 54 million people have already cast ballots. That's nearly half of the total ballots cast in the last midterm election. Democrats hold a double-digit advantage going into today, based on available data from early voting.
But a major key today will be how many Republicans show up to the polls. There are so many red states and districts in play, and the GOP votes overwhelmingly in person on Election Day.
Democrats are favored to win the House. They only have to flip three seats for control, and the…
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