In October, global oil production outstripped consumption by nearly 2 million barrels a day as Gulf exports resumed faster than expected. The International Energy Agency now forecasts fourth-quarter supply will average 105 million barrels a day, exceeding demand by 1.7 million barrels a day. The market transition is being accelerated by IEA member nations, which intend to release an additional 71 million barrels from emergency reserves by late February. Crude prices have cooled from April highs of $126 to roughly $95 a barrel, though regional tensions remain elevated.
Key points
Rebounding Gulf production has reversed prior expectations of a market deficit into a pro…: Rebounding Gulf production has reversed prior expectations of a market deficit into a projected 1.7 million barrel daily surplus for the fourth quarter.
Crude prices have receded into the mid-$90s range following statements from US President…: Crude prices have receded into the mid-$90s range following statements from US President Donald Trump indicating the war is effectively finished.
Lingering threats including tanker attacks and Iranian fears of further US strikes contin…: Lingering threats including tanker attacks and Iranian fears of further US strikes continue to generate underlying market vulnerability.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
The world’s oil supply is swinging back to a surplus for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.
Oil supplies outstripped demand by almost 2m barrels a day in October, the Paris-based agency said, as “gulf exports recovered much faster than global oil demand”.
The market “is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran”, the IEA reported.
It comes after months of disruption to the global oil market as the Middle East conflict blocked shipments via the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply normally passes.
The conflict has triggered a rise in energy prices this year. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, traded at about $72 a barrel in February, before the conflict began, and hit $126 a barrel by the end of April.
However, this week prices fell to their lowest level since late August, at $89.66, after the US president,…
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