Stratospheric winds could fully reverse by mid-November, which would represent the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming event recorded in 75 years. The disturbance has already stretched the system and split it into two separate smaller circulations. Although these patterns typically displace the jet stream to bring snow to the eastern UK, forecasters caution that early-season events carry a weaker influence on lower-atmosphere patterns. Natural atmospheric variability or an unusually strong El Niño may have triggered the anomaly.
Key points
Colder, snowy weather for the United Kingdom remains far from guaranteed despite the hist…: Colder, snowy weather for the United Kingdom remains far from guaranteed despite the historic high-altitude disruption.
Because the Arctic has not reached peak winter cold, the system may have a weaker impact…: Because the Arctic has not reached peak winter cold, the system may have a weaker impact on surface weather.
Scientists suspect natural variability or atmospheric waves from El Niño triggered the sh…: Scientists suspect natural variability or atmospheric waves from El Niño triggered the shift, though definitive historical evidence is lacking.
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- Published
High above the Arctic, powerful winds usually circle the North Pole each winter, helping trap some of the coldest air on Earth.
But this circulation, known as the polar vortex, has weakened and shifted position in recent days.
While such disruptions can occur during winter, scientists say an event this early in November is unprecedented in modern observations.
Similar disruptions in past years have sometimes been followed by colder weather affecting parts of Europe and North America.
However, as this is happening so early in the season, there are few historical examples to compare with and it could throw current winter forecasts into even more uncertainty.
What is the polar vortex?
The polar vortex develops every autumn as temperatures fall in the Arctic.
Strong westerly winds form in the stratosphere, roughly 10 to 30 miles (15-50km) above Earth's surface, locking the coldest air near the pole.
Atmospheric disturbances can cause the air high up to start warming which then makes the vortex winds weaken. This sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) can eventually lead to the strong westerlies reversing into…
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