Artificial Intelligence1 min read

Besides the bubble, a big AI risk could be growing

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Major technology companies are using joint ventures and opaque financial structures to fund soaring artificial intelligence infrastructure demands without displaying direct debt. S&P Global expects the six largest U.S. hyperscalers to face negative free operating cash flow through 2027 as spending mounts. For example, a roughly $35 billion arrangement involving a special-purpose vehicle leases Google-designed chips to Anthropic using third-party debt led by Apollo and Blackstone. If the infrastructure expansion fails to yield projected returns, these overlapping financial commitments could trigger widespread systemic vulnerabilities.

Key points

  • Unrated and unreported debt arrangements obscure the true financial liabilities that majo…: Unrated and unreported debt arrangements obscure the true financial liabilities that major tech companies carry for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
  • Interlocking agreements between cloud providers, chip suppliers, and artificial intellige…: Interlocking agreements between cloud providers, chip suppliers, and artificial intelligence startups create shared counterparty risks across the tech ecosystem.
  • While credit rating agencies currently see no immediate downgrade risk, a slowdown in the…: While credit rating agencies currently see no immediate downgrade risk, a slowdown in the investment boom could expose deep structural vulnerabilities.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Though the biggest concern surrounding the AI boom remains whether the billions being poured into data centres, chips and computing infrastructure will generate returns quickly enough, the profitability question may not be the only financial risk building around the AI boom.

As the infrastructure buildout expands, an increasingly complex web of financing arrangements is connecting hyperscalers, chipmakers, data-centre operators and AI startups, potentially creating financial exposures that are not immediately visible to investors. These arrangements are not an immediate threat, but could become a more serious vulnerability if the AI investment boom falters.

Also Read: MeitY unveils DEPA handbook to enable trusted data sharing for AI training

Besides the conventional AI bubble

The recent sell-off in technology stocks has brought renewed scrutiny of Big Tech's AI spending. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the expected returns can justify the extraordinary capital expenditure.That remains the most immediate concern for credit-rating agencies too. In an October 19 interview with Reuters, Mark Habib, S&P Global's head of digital infrastructure, said the biggest risk to hyperscalers' credit ratings remained whether expected profits from AI investments…

Artificial Intelligence