Finance1 min read

Yen gains after BOJ, AI jitters drive Treasury rally, weigh on dollar

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The Japanese currency advanced toward 157.115 per dollar after the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 1.25 per cent but raised its inflation outlook. At the same time, disappointing results from Alphabet weighed on artificial intelligence stocks, prompting an equity sell-off that drove investors into safe-haven U.S. government debt. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.8958 per cent, leaving the dollar index subdued at 101.77. This environment coincides with elevated energy prices, as Brent crude futures head toward an 11.5 per cent monthly gain.

Key points

  • The Bank of Japan reaffirmed its willingness to hike borrowing costs despite leaving curr…: The Bank of Japan reaffirmed its willingness to hike borrowing costs despite leaving current interest rates unchanged at 1.25 per cent.
  • Safe-haven demand sparked by declining technology equities pressured U.S. Treasury yields…: Safe-haven demand sparked by declining technology equities pressured U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest marks in over a month.
  • Global central banks remain on hold as persistent inflation and an 11.5 per cent monthly…: Global central banks remain on hold as persistent inflation and an 11.5 per cent monthly surge in Brent crude complicate policy outlooks.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

HONG KONG, Oct 30 : The yen inched higher on Friday after the Bank of Japan held rates steady as expected, while the dollar tracked Treasury yields lower as a fresh wave of selling in AI shares triggered a flight to safety.

The BOJ left interest rates on hold at 1.25 per cent in a widely anticipated move, but revised up its inflation forecast and stressed anew its readiness to continue pushing up borrowing costs to forestall mounting inflation risks.

Following the decision, the yen strengthened to a high of 157.115 per dollar, erasing most of its losses for the month and putting it on track to end October broadly flat.

Investors are now awaiting Governor Kazuo Ueda's news conference at 0630 GMT for further clues on the policy decision and the future path of interest rates.

"Bottom line: boring hold, hawkish direction," said Masahiko Loo, chief fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management in Tokyo.

"The debate is no longer whether the BOJ normalises, but where the terminal (rate) lands. Our base case remains around 1.75 per cent…

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