The IEA projects that additions from facilities in North America, West Africa, and Australia will contribute slightly over 20 bcm of supply this winter, spearheaded by 18 bcm from new projects. However, these volumes will not counter the steep export reductions from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. As a result, total worldwide LNG supply is forecasted to contract by 10 to 25 bcm year-on-year between November and March. The ultimate deficit depends heavily on the timeline for safe transit resuming through the Persian Gulf.
Key points
Global LNG supply is projected to contract by 10 to 25 bcm year-on-year between November…: Global LNG supply is projected to contract by 10 to 25 bcm year-on-year between November and March despite incoming production.
A gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in January 2027 would still leave winter supp…: A gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in January 2027 would still leave winter supplies 9 bcm lower year-on-year.
Prolonged waterway closures through March 2027 could trigger a 7 percent global supply de…: Prolonged waterway closures through March 2027 could trigger a 7 percent global supply decline alongside risks of unplanned outages.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
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