Roughly 80 percent of congressional seats are rated as safe for either Democrats or Republicans, marginalizing candidates who challenge the dominant political apparatus in uncompetitive regions. In Wyoming, Democratic contender Lisa Kinney is running without a formal campaign office while facing attack ads tethering her to national party figures. Similar hurdles face Republican candidates like home builder George Austin in Democratic strongholds such as Connecticut. Analysts attribute this entrenched environment to intentional gerrymandering alongside voters geographically clustering among like-minded neighbors.
Key points
Severe resource shortages routinely hamper congressional candidates challenging dominant…: Severe resource shortages routinely hamper congressional candidates challenging dominant parties in noncompetitive districts.
Down-ballot candidates often struggle to separate their personal platforms from polarizin…: Down-ballot candidates often struggle to separate their personal platforms from polarizing national party identities.
Geographic sorting and gerrymandering have largely eliminated genuine political competiti…: Geographic sorting and gerrymandering have largely eliminated genuine political competition across the vast majority of districts.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Much ink has been spilled this election cycle about the competitive races that could determine which party controls Congress.
But tossup districts represent only a fraction of congressional races. The vast majority — 80% — are rated solid Republican or solid Democrat. Candidates running against the political grain face an uphill battle, with campaigns marked by limited resources, dwindling donors, and scarce staff.
What's it like to run for Congress when political wisdom says you'll probably lose?
It's a question Lisa Kinney has heard again and again.
She's running as a Democrat for the lone House seat in Wyoming. Since the late 1970s, it has only sent Republicans to Congress.
"I don't think the people of Wyoming always hear both sides," Kinney says during a day of campaigning in Casper. "I'm glad to give another opinion. And I'm a Wyomingite, so I'm still moderate no matter what."
You wouldn't know it from an ad from her opponent that places her next to progressive figures Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
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