The shifting storm track is expected to deliver heavy, flood-inducing rains across California and south-eastern states such as Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, western and central Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and the Ohio Valley face a high probability of reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures. Along the West Coast, ocean-driven Kelvin waves could temporarily elevate sea levels by 15 centimeters or more, compounding coastal erosion hazards. Reduced snowpack in the north may also deplete groundwater reserves and disrupt ski resort operations heading into spring.
Key points
Southern states and the West Coast face heightened threats from severe storms, coastal er…: Southern states and the West Coast face heightened threats from severe storms, coastal erosion, and dangerous flooding.
Northern states and Canadian regions risk depleted groundwater and elevated spring wildfi…: Northern states and Canadian regions risk depleted groundwater and elevated spring wildfire danger due to mild, dry weather.
Mountain snowpack projections remain split, with California and the southern Rockies expe…: Mountain snowpack projections remain split, with California and the southern Rockies expecting gains while northern areas face deficits.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
- Published
The developing El Niño - already the strongest on record by some measures - continues to grow and could have profound effects on the weather across North America this autumn and winter.
The naturally-occurring climate phenomenon sees trade winds over the Pacific Ocean, which usually blow from east to west, weakening or reversing with warm water instead spreading eastwards.
This releases heat into the atmosphere which can drive major shifts in global weather patterns.
Impacts in the US and Canada are varied, with a greater chance of a warm and dry winter in northern areas and more risk of flooding rain further south.
There is also some evidence that El Niño can increase the likelihood of disruption to the stratospheric polar vortex which can, in turn, bring snowfall later in winter.
No two El Niños are the same and the impacts are not guaranteed - the odds are just shifted in favour of certain outcomes.
UN warns of 'supersized' El Niño as countries prepare for impact
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