Climate1 min read

Warming UK seas could ‘fundamentally reshape marine ecosystems’ – report

By · Via The Guardian Environment · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Waters around the UK, Ireland, and France—particularly the southern North Sea—rank among the world's fastest-warming marine hotspots over the past half-century. Under a projected 3C warming scenario, warmer-water fish such as seabass and sardines will replace native cold-water species like cod, driving a 12% rise in fish and seabed invertebrate diversity. However, foundational phytoplankton and zooplankton are set to drop by 3% and 7% respectively, eroding the base of the food chain. The study has been submitted to a UK government review to help adapt future marine protected areas and fisheries management.

Key points

  • Rising numbers of predator fish do not indicate increased ecosystem resilience if foundat…: Rising numbers of predator fish do not indicate increased ecosystem resilience if foundational food sources continue to dwindle.
  • Species shifts will see southern varieties like anchovies and sardines replace traditiona…: Species shifts will see southern varieties like anchovies and sardines replace traditional cold-water fish including Atlantic cod, haddock, and coley.
  • Researchers submitted these machine-learning projections to a UK government review to inf…: Researchers submitted these machine-learning projections to a UK government review to inform future fisheries management and protected marine zones.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Warming seas around the UK and the wider north-east Atlantic could destabilise marine food webs, weaken ocean health and jeopardise food security by 2050, according to a four-year study.

Scientists who projected the impact of climate breakdown on four key groups of marine life crucial to maintaining ocean ecosystems in the region said their results challenged assumptions that in middle latitudes, such as the UK, marine biodiversity was likely to increase across the board.

Instead, their projections highlight a predator-prey imbalance that could “fundamentally reshape marine ecosystems” in unforeseen ways, they said.

The seas around the British isles, particularly the southern North Sea, have been identified as “marine climate hotspots”, one of 20 globally to have warmed the fastest over 50 years.

The new predictions, under a scenario of 3C (5.4F) of warming by 2100, found that while fish and seabed invertebrates may become more diverse by mid-century, key plankton groups lower in the food chain were likely to decline. This imbalance, the authors of the report said, could disrupt marine food webs and weaken the health and resilience of…

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