The monthly rise in consumer prices moderated from September's pace, aided by average retail gas costs retreating from $4.41 to $4.22 per gallon. Even with that dip, gasoline remains more than a dollar higher than last year, while diesel sits nearly $2.50 higher per gallon. Because the October 2025 government shutdown disrupted data collection, the Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted its standard annual benchmark figure. Robust job growth and unemployment near 4% have reinforced the central bank's determination to tighten monetary policy further.
Key points
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another interest rate hike in December foll…: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another interest rate hike in December following strong employment figures.
High pump costs were a primary political driver behind Democrats winning control of Congr…: High pump costs were a primary political driver behind Democrats winning control of Congress during the midterms.
Ongoing conflict in Iran has sustained annualized inflation above 3% since late February,…: Ongoing conflict in Iran has sustained annualized inflation above 3% since late February, surpassing central bank targets.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
US inflation rose 0.4% from September to October, a cooldown in price increases as the cost of gas dipped during the month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the usual year-over-year inflation figure as part of the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of a basket of goods and services, as data was not collected in October 2025 during the government shutdown.
Higher energy costs driven by the Iran war have been the main factor behind increased inflation, which has been above an annualized 3% since the war started in late February. In May, inflation reached 4.2%, a three-year high, before fluctuating between 3.4% and 3.7%.
Energy prices continued to rise slightly in October, though increases were not as high as they were in September. In September, the monthly change in CPI from August was 0.6%.
The new data comes after a midterm election that will give Democrats control of Congress, in what was largely seen as a rebuke of Republicans over high prices. In their postmortem of the midterms, Republicans, including JD Vance, have specifically…
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