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United Airlines slashes 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices, but travelers keep booking despite higher fares

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In short

United Airlines has revised its profit forecast for 2026, cutting it to no more than $7.22 per share, down from the previous expectation of $9 to $11 per share. Despite the cut, the carrier expects to earn between 50 cents and $1.50 a share on an adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, well below the $1.76 a share Wall Street analysts had anticipated. The company anticipates paying an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from an average price of $3.90 a gallon in the third quarter.

Key points

  • United Airlines has revised its profit forecast for 2026, cutting it to no more than $7.2…: United Airlines has revised its profit forecast for 2026, cutting it to no more than $7.22 per share, down from the previous expectation of $9 to $11 per share.
  • Despite the cut, the carrier expects to earn between 50 cents and $1.50 a share on an adj…: Despite the cut, the carrier expects to earn between 50 cents and $1.50 a share on an adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, well below the $1.76 a share Wall Street analysts had anticipated.
  • The company anticipates paying an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarte…: The company anticipates paying an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from an average price of $3.90 a gallon in the third quarter.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

United Airlines is slashing its profit forecast for the year as fuel costs continue to bite, but the carrier said passengers keep booking.

United said Tuesday that it expects to earn between 50 cents and $1.50 a share on an adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, well below the $1.76 a share Wall Street analysts expected. At the high end of that range, it would bring United's 2026 adjusted earnings to no more than $7.22 per share. In mid-July, United said it was expecting full-year earnings of $9 to $11 a share.

The carrier expects to pay an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from an average price of $3.90 a gallon in the third.

A surge in fuel prices this year has added billions of dollars to airlines' costs, eating into profits, despite strong demand, and driving up airfares.

Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

- Earnings per share: $2.54 adjusted vs. $2.57 expected

- Revenue: $17.88 billion vs. $17.9 billion expected

United's third-quarter net income rose 8.5% from a year earlier to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 a share. During the same period last year its net income totaled $949 million, or $2.90 a share.

Revenue for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose 17.4% from a year earlier to $17.88 billion, compared with $15.23 billion the year before.

Domestic passenger unit revenue rose 14.5% from a year earlier, while international unit revenue was up 17.4%, a sign of higher fares. Passengers continue to book, United said, with passenger counts up more than 2% from last year.

Original source: www.cnbc.com

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