Why is Ukraine so reliant on Starlink and can Europe plug the gap?
- Published
Ukraine is in desperate need of a new satellite internet service, but a fast and reliable alternative to Elon Musk's Starlink network simply doesn't exist - yet.
Last week's sudden slowdown of the service in Ukraine, which affected Kyiv's ability to defend itself from Russian attacks, has shown how vulnerable the country can be, and sharply increased Europe's urgency to have its own military-grade satellite network.
There are a few alternatives, but they are all lagging behind Starlink, which is the world's largest satellite constellation.
France's Eutelsat, with its OneWeb internet service, is the main alternative - but it only has about 600 active satellites, compared to Starlink's 10,000-plus.
The EU is working on a new network to rival Starlink, Iris², however it won't be up and running until 2029.
For Ukraine's troops on the ground, several of whom spoke anonymously to the BBC, reliable connectivity is the difference between life and death.
"God forbid they shut it off completely, it would be an absolute catastrophe," said one. "I don't give a damn how much an alternative costs when our lives are on the line."
For now, Ukraine's best bet is to join Govsatcom, the EU's satellite sharing network - but it cannot be used for military warfare like controlling drones.
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Why does Starlink dominate in Ukraine?
Starlink and its military-grade service, Starshield, are both owned by Elon Musk's SpaceX company and have dominated the global satellite market for years.
Ukraine relies on Starlink for communications on the battlefield and Starshield for military purposes like drone warfare. The network is able to provide fast, real-time connectivity, which is crucial for defence and intercepting Russian attacks.
"You can't employ drone warfare without this kind of high-speed internet connection," said Vincent Tourret, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.
Last week's slowdown, which has only just been restored, highlighted the risks of relying on a US provider at a time when tensions between Kyiv and Washington continue to deteriorate.
"Ukraine's defence cannot depend on Trump's or Musk's whims," French MEP, Christophe Grudler, tweeted.
Who authorised the Starlink restrictions is still not clear, with a confusing blame-game ongoing between the Pentagon, Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
While Starlink has been one of Ukraine's greatest assets in this conflict, the "flipside of that dependence" has been exposed, explained Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS.
"This is a critical military capability that Ukraine relies on, but doesn't control."
Starlink is not the only satellite network Ukraine can access, so if it goes down there are other options - but experts say they aren't as fast, and troops the BBC spoke to, agree.
Starlink "gives us the upper hand when it comes to passing commands - even one or two seconds are critical when we can transfer data and orders faster, and you can really feel that advantage on the battlefield," a soldier said.
The terminals used to connect to the satellites are also an important factor. Starlink's are relatively small and lightweight, so they can be fixed to any kind of vehicle or drone.
Eutelsat's terminals "are slightly larger, so they can be fitted on the roof of a car, or on tanks, but they can't necessarily sit on small drones," said Eva Berneke, former CEO of the French satellite company.
They are also about five times more expensive, she added.
What can the EU offer right now?
Rhetoric from the White House - like Donald Trump's scathing criticism of Nato and his threats against Greenland - have given the EU "some pretty brutal alarm bells", Berneke told the BBC.
She had only been at Eutelsat for a month when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and said she noticed a marked change in urgency from European authorities, as they looked to her company to help plug holes left by Starlink if it could not be relied upon.
Comments from Elon Musk have further heightened the need for an alternative: "Be quiet, small man... there is no substitute for Starlink," he tweeted, external at Poland's foreign minister last year, when the politician said he would "look for other suppliers" if SpaceX was unreliable.
Europe has realised its security depends on space, and it must "strengthen its satellite capacities, urgently," a spokesperson for the European Commission told the BBC.
Right now, it has Govsatcom, a network that was set up in January to share existing satellites between EU member states. Ukraine is not a full-fledged member (although it is trying to become one), but the Commission is in talks with Kyiv to join Govsatcom.
But even if Ukraine could connect tomorrow, the network could not be used for warfare operations like piloting drones, which Starshield is used for.
That could change by the start of next year, however, when the European Commission hopes commercial companies, like Eutelsat's OneWeb, will join the programme. This will give Ukraine some - but not all - of its military network needs.
Eva Berneke told the BBC she is confident the company will be able to "support quite a lot of Ukraine's key military needs". But meeting its communications needs is another thing, because as is the case with most countries, they are varied and massive.
Eutelsat could not comment on Govsatcom, but told the BBC that "as the only European operator of a fully operational [Low Earth Orbit] constellation, we are committed to providing resilient connectivity to the businesses, governments and communities we serve".
No timeline has been given for when Ukraine will be able to join the Govsatcom network. When it does it will likely be as a reliable back-up to Starlink and Starshield.
But that's better than nothing, Vincent Tourret said. "If Starlink is shut down, it's good to have another way to stay connected, but it won't be enough for strikes or interceptions, at this stage."
Iris² - The EU's future network
Govsatcom is seen as a short-term safety net, until the stronger and more secure network, Iris², external is up and running in 2029.
The ambitious project (pronounced Iris squared) is Europe's answer to Starlink and Starshield. It will be a defence-first programme, the European Commission says, with a focus on governments, military and emergency services. Ukraine has been guaranteed access to it from day one.
Part of the EU's space programme, the European satellite companies Eutelsat, SES and Hispasat are leading the project in a consortium called SpaceRISE.
It will still have far fewer satellites than Starlink, with 348 across low and medium earth orbit - but that shouldn't be seen as a negative, said Kari Bingen.
"Think about a flash light beaming down - those satellites will be able to cover a greater amount of the Earth, so you need fewer of them," she explained. "They're all trade offs - I would not take it as a negative, that Iris² is planning for less satellites."
Tourret was more sceptical: "It's no gamechanger and no great saviour, I'm afraid".
A highly-produced video on the EU Space Policy's website declares: "With Iris², Europe will no longer depend on others for satellite connectivity."
So does that mean Ukraine could switch off Starlink? No - that wouldn't be a good idea.
"Users need to think about communications resilience," Bingen said. "So if something happens to one system, you have other ways to maintain connectivity."
It's similar to how mobile phones work, explained Eva Berneke: "If you don't have 5G, you go back to 4G. And if you don't have 4G, you might use 3G, so you have multiple networks for resilience. It's the same idea in warfare."
But while a phone might not load pictures as quickly on 3G, for a drone operator, it can be deadly: "That is not a nice situation to have to be in when you're fighting a war."
Iris² is not the only option. This week, Finnish companies Nokia and ICEYE, external announced they would look at developing satellite communications for Ukraine's military defences.
And a joint venture between European satellite makers Airbus, Leonardo and Thales, called Project Bromo, is hoped to be another competitor against SpaceX, but it is still in the very early phases.
Space projects take a long time, Berneke said, and need "a lot of money".
Designing the programme, making the satellites, launching them and then having enough of them in orbit for full coverage takes many years.
"Even if you gave me €8bn right now, I don't think I could have anything up there before 2032-2033," she explained.
Why Space is the new defence frontier
Military work in Space is nothing new, and has been happening since the dawn of the space age in the 1950s. But the conflict in Ukraine has shown how integral it is to modern warfare.
"Communication is so important, and terrestrial communication platforms, whether it's 5G or fibre, can be attacked on the ground," Berneke said. "It is a lot harder to shoot down an entire satellite network. That's not something any military can do right now."
While we look to the skies, however, most of the world's communications are travelling via undersea cables - about 99% in fact. But these are vulnerable to attack - this week the UK government outlined new measures to protect its cables, after an increase in suspicious activity by Russian vessels.
"In a crisis or conflict, there are serious concerns that undersea cables will be cut... so if that happens it's good to have satellite communication as a backup," Kari Bingen said.
Additional reporting by Anastasiia Levchenko
- Published16 October