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UB expects Q3 profit growth to moderate on rising costs

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The brewer anticipates third-quarter gross margins to settle between 43% and 45% following a September quarter aided by regulatory shifts and favorable weather comparisons. Management previously warned that infrastructure damage will prevent input costs from returning to pre-conflict levels even if geopolitical hostilities subside. The company also adjusted its projected margin impact for the final quarter of FY26 down to ₹350-400 crore from an earlier ₹400-500 crore estimate. Furthermore, delayed price approvals in key states like Telangana have restricted reinvestment and eroded market share against active competitors.

Key points

  • Strong September quarter growth figures should not be extrapolated due to one-off weather…: Strong September quarter growth figures should not be extrapolated due to one-off weather comparisons and regulatory benefits.
  • Input costs are expected to stay elevated permanently because infrastructure damage preve…: Input costs are expected to stay elevated permanently because infrastructure damage prevents prices from returning to pre-war levels.
  • United Breweries will sacrifice regional market share to protect profit margins in states…: United Breweries will sacrifice regional market share to protect profit margins in states that withhold pricing approval.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The maker of Kingfisher beer reported a 16% rise in volumes and a 24% increase in net sales in the September quarter but cautioned against extrapolating the performance, which benefited from regulatory changes and a favourable comparison with a weather-hit year-earlier period.

The company expects input-cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict to persist, with sugar prices also rising. It forecasts gross margins of 43-45%, compared with 44.7% in the September quarter.

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"If I'm honest, my expectation is that even if we will hopefully find an end to this war, we won't go back to pre-war pricing if we see that infrastructure in the Middle East has also been heavily impacted. So I don't think that that will happen," he added.

The Heineken-owned company had initially highlighted a ₹400-500 crore margin hit in the last quarter of FY26, which it later revised down to ₹350-400 crore.

Read more: Bandhan Bank Q2 profit jumps 5.6 times as asset quality improves

Pricing remains a…

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