Politics1 min read

Trump-Kim reset after midterm blow? Why North Korea may hold the cards

By · Via Times of India · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The administration may attempt to reengage Pyongyang during the president's final two years in office, though the White House maintains its security choices remain uninfluenced by domestic politics. Regional partners in Seoul and Tokyo fear being sidelined if Washington pursues bilateral talks or drops its insistence on complete disarmament. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to cite hostile American policies as a barrier to dialogue, with bilateral leadership talks considered increasingly unlikely this year.

Key points

  • Shelving complete denuclearization demands could severely weaken deterrence and spark maj…: Shelving complete denuclearization demands could severely weaken deterrence and spark major policy disputes between Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul.
  • North Korean leadership has signaled talks might restart only if the United States comple…: North Korean leadership has signaled talks might restart only if the United States completely abandons its requirement for total disarmament.
  • Officials in both the United States and South Korea consider the prospects of a leadershi…: Officials in both the United States and South Korea consider the prospects of a leadership meeting this year to be rapidly declining.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

US President Donald Trump could turn his attention to North Korea in search of foreign policy victories after Republicans suffered a major setback in the midterm elections, but any attempt to revive negotiations with leader Kim Jong Un could put Washington at odds with its closest Asian allies, according to a Reuters report.

With the wars in Ukraine and Iran yet to produce diplomatic breakthroughs, analysts and officials in Asia believe Trump may increasingly look towards the region to build his foreign policy legacy during the final two years of his presidency.

Kim, with whom Trump has repeatedly expressed an eagerness to restart dialogue, could emerge as a central figure in that effort. However, analysts say Pyongyang has little reason to return to the negotiating table at present, particularly as its military capabilities and strategic partnerships have expanded.

"Trump is likely to devote significant effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces greater constraints on the domestic front," said Ban Kil-joo, an international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.

"Given Trump would want a…

Politics