Massive bottlenecks have emerged due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities alongside Middle Eastern disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and Houthi strikes. These disruptions have amplified long-standing vulnerabilities, including the shutdown of nearly a quarter of European Union refining capacity over the past two decades. Even with emergency reserve releases and diplomatic efforts to expand diesel supplies, analysts warn market conditions may not fully normalize until 2027.
Key points
Global refiners are posting massive profit gains as conflict-driven disruptions keep proc…: Global refiners are posting massive profit gains as conflict-driven disruptions keep processing facilities operating near maximum capacity.
Government interventions to release emergency fuel reserves are expected to offer only li…: Government interventions to release emergency fuel reserves are expected to offer only limited relief for consumers.
Depleted worldwide fuel inventories could keep physical refining markets severely constra…: Depleted worldwide fuel inventories could keep physical refining markets severely constrained well into the year 2027.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
President Donald Trump scolded Big Oil in August, saying ExxonMobil and Chevron were making "too much money based on a shortage," as profits surged in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Corporate results published this week laid out the windfall oil majors are continuing to get from tight fuel supplies and elevated refining margins amid global conflict.
Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Exxon reported sharply higher margins in their refined-products businesses, a gauge of the amount they earn from processing crude oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
Chevron does not report a comparable, standalone refining-margin figure, but it reported Friday that its downstream earnings more than quadrupled from a year earlier to $4.9 billion, with the company citing higher margins on refined-product sales.
That's amid tight supplies of refined fuels and pressure on refinery output globally, despite oil firms reporting this week that they are running their facilities near capacity to try to meet demand.
Why supply is tight
Key issues include ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and disruptions to Middle East energy infrastructure and supply…
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