Politics1 min read

The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading

By · Via The Guardian · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The United States is investing hundreds of millions of dollars to mine and process critical minerals while curbing China's access to advanced lithography equipment and artificial intelligence semiconductors. In turn, Beijing has enacted export limits on solar power and AI chips while threatening penalties against nations that seek alternatives to its mineral supplies. An International Energy Agency assessment warns that a full Chinese blockade of rare earth magnets could cost the American and European economies approximately $1.5 trillion each year.

Key points

  • Washington is actively restricting advanced lithography tools and semiconductor exports t…: Washington is actively restricting advanced lithography tools and semiconductor exports to limit Beijing's broader technological growth.
  • Beijing has countered Western restrictions by limiting exports of solar technology, artif…: Beijing has countered Western restrictions by limiting exports of solar technology, artificial intelligence chips, and rare earth magnets.
  • The lack of mutual dispute assurances leaves critical global supply chains vulnerable to…: The lack of mutual dispute assurances leaves critical global supply chains vulnerable to sudden national security actions.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Donald Trump’s trade wars have largely fallen off the headlines. Fears of new tariffs flare up from time to time when the US president goes off the rails – for instance, threatening to end US trade with countries with which it has a deficit unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. But the sense that the world’s two largest economies are plowing ahead into an overt economic conflagration has taken a back seat to other, more salient fears, about Trump ending American democracy, AI killing us all and stuff like that.

The sense of calm is misleading. Under the radar, the world is marching toward an economic war of potentially epic proportions, one that, history suggests, could well spill over into the real thing.

The truce reached by Washington and Beijing last year in their escalating trade conflict, which has been extended until next January, lowered the heat between the two – putting an end to the escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs and opening a door to some as yet undefined future trade deal.

But neither China nor the US has…

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