Both North African rivals are actively maneuvering across diplomacy, trade, energy, and security to expand their influence among the Alliance of Sahel States. Algeria is motivated by critical security vulnerabilities along its southern frontier, which prompted its parliament to approve its first foreign troop deployment in over fifty years following an attempted coup in Niger. Concurrently, Algiers is attempting to mend ties after recent diplomatic crises, such as downing a Malian drone in April 2025 and Mali abandoning the 2015 Algiers peace pact. Meanwhile, Morocco is successfully establishing a strategic footprint in Mali despite having no physical land border with the region.
Key points
Growing instability along shared southern borders has driven Algeria to abandon its longs…: Growing instability along shared southern borders has driven Algeria to abandon its longstanding doctrine of non-intervention in foreign conflicts.
Morocco is aggressively expanding its diplomatic and security footprint in Mali despite s…: Morocco is aggressively expanding its diplomatic and security footprint in Mali despite sharing no physical borders with the Sahelian states.
Authorities in Bamako and Niamey are increasingly weighing Algerian proposals to resolve…: Authorities in Bamako and Niamey are increasingly weighing Algerian proposals to resolve Tuareg grievances through political dialogue rather than force.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
For decades, the rivalry between Algeria and Morocco has played out mainly around Western Sahara and the question of leadership in the Maghreb.
A former Spanish colony, Western Sahara is claimed by Rabat, which controls most of it, while Algiers supports the Polisario Front, which demands a UN‑backed self‑determination referendum for the Sahrawi people.
In parallel, the two countries have competed since independence for the role of leading power in the Maghreb. These disputes, among others, have led to severe diplomatic tensions: their border has been closed since 1994 and relations severed since 2021.
Today, however, this rivalry is projecting further south, into the Sahel.
Diplomacy, security, infrastructure, energy, trade and religion: the region has become a new arena where the two North African states seek to consolidate their positions amid rapid geopolitical shifts.
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Meanwhile, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger - united within the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) - are also trying to diversify their partners…
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