Business1 min read

The folly of just-in-time supply chains | Letters

By · Via The Guardian Business · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Modern operational models have eliminated buffers like surplus hospital beds, strategic stockpiles, and experienced staff to meet short-term cost targets. These cost-cutting choices left manufacturing exposed when pandemic disruptions halted trade, while Europe's military dependence on the U.S. produced strategic weaknesses. Evaluating assets solely against peacetime conditions ignores their fundamental purpose during crises. Resilience must be recognized as crucial protection rather than eliminated as wasteful overhead.

Key points

  • Modern systems face severe risks when organizations optimize solely for short-term cost r…: Modern systems face severe risks when organizations optimize solely for short-term cost reduction instead of baseline resilience.
  • Maintaining excess capacity across public services and infrastructure functions as necess…: Maintaining excess capacity across public services and infrastructure functions as necessary insurance rather than operational waste.
  • Strategic defense and supply networks must evaluate their true emergency purpose instead…: Strategic defense and supply networks must evaluate their true emergency purpose instead of prioritizing immediate financial efficiency.

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The article by Steven Strogatz and Alex Townsend on the dangers of excessive optimisation identifies a problem extending far beyond mathematics and artificial intelligence (The efficiency trap: why optimising everything can backfire, badly, 8 November).

The widespread adoption of just-in-time supply chains illustrates it perfectly. By eliminating inventories and spare capacity, businesses reduced costs and improved efficiency, but frequently transferred those savings into risks that remained invisible until something went wrong. The disruption of global manufacturing during the pandemic exposed the consequences.

The same thinking has shaped public services and national defence. Hospital beds, experienced staff, strategic stockpiles and redundant infrastructure can all appear wasteful when measured against immediate demand. Yet their value lies precisely in their availability when circumstances cease to be normal.

Europe’s dependence on American military capabilities provides a particularly troubling example. What appeared financially efficient in peacetime has created strategic vulnerabilities as the reliability of US commitments comes into question.

The fundamental error is not optimisation itself, but optimising the wrong objective. A system designed to minimise expenditure may succeed brilliantly at doing so while becoming…

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