The electoral retreat traces back through three presidential eras, beginning after Thabo Mbeki's administration, which delivered 5.4 percent economic growth and strong electoral majorities. Those gains were subsequently dismantled under Jacob Zuma's presidency, when state capture cost South Africa an estimated 500 billion rand and crippled public infrastructure. Cyril Ramaphosa's promised reform agenda failed to enforce accountability, allowing tender corruption and COVID-19 relief fraud to go unpunished while rival factions capitalized on voter disillusionment.
Key points
The ruling party has lost its dominance in urban metros and now depends heavily on coalit…: The ruling party has lost its dominance in urban metros and now depends heavily on coalition partners to run cities.
Broad segments of the electorate, including the Black middle class and working class, aba…: Broad segments of the electorate, including the Black middle class and working class, abandoned the party through defection and abstention.
Executive leniency toward Jacob Zuma helped fuel the rise of his uMkhonto weSizwe Party,…: Executive leniency toward Jacob Zuma helped fuel the rise of his uMkhonto weSizwe Party, which drained critical electoral support.
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Zuma squandered Mbeki’s gains, while Ramaphosa’s dithering turned the ANC’s promised renewal into a fight for survival.
When the expected implosion of the African National Congress (ANC) came in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, it was still surprisingly dramatic. The ANC remained the largest political party, but its share of the popular vote declined to 32.5 percent, essentially leaving it a rural party where its governance power is not entirely dependent on coalition partners.
It is now a Black African party without minority voters. Significant elements of the Black middle class and sections of the Black African rural and working classes showed disaffection through defection and abstention.
This leaves an ANC dependent on other parties for coalitions in the urban metros and cities, while facing a confident and emboldened white community, quite surprised at how easily Black power could be diluted so soon after apartheid. But the seeds of this implosion were sown over three nine-year leadership phases.
Nine developing years (1999–2008)
The first transition in this evolution was after the nine developing years under President Thabo Mbeki, which…
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