The termination occurred after disagreement over an American proposal to replace the planned self-determination referendum with Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan as the sole negotiating baseline. With the mission officially shuttered, United Nations personnel have started liquidating the headquarters in Laayoune and transferring physical assets to Moroccan authorities. Although Rabat claimed it will voluntarily observe a ceasefire, Polisario representatives cautioned that the breakdown of talks directly risks armed escalation and new refugee flows into Europe.
Key points
The departure of peacekeepers leaves the buffer zone unmonitored following the prior brea…: The departure of peacekeepers leaves the buffer zone unmonitored following the prior breakdown of the 2020 ceasefire.
Diplomatic paralysis threatens to trigger larger armed clashes between Moroccan forces an…: Diplomatic paralysis threatens to trigger larger armed clashes between Moroccan forces and the Algeria-backed Polisario Front.
Sahrawi officials warned that the return to armed conflict risks generating significant r…: Sahrawi officials warned that the return to armed conflict risks generating significant regional instability and European refugee flows.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Last week's failure by the UN Security Council to renew the mandate of its Western Sahara mission after 35 years has deepened concerns that the conflict could escalate militarily while slipping further from international attention.
The United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (Minurso) was established in 1991 to monitor a ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front, the armed group fighting for Sahrawi independence in the territory, and pave the way for a referendum.
That ceasefire collapsed in 2020 and the referendum never happened.
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Sunday appeared to be the final nail in the coffin for the peace process, with Minurso's mandate expiring after Russia and the US both vetoed each other's resolution to extend it.
The Polisario Front’s top diplomat told Middle East Eye that they were largely optimistic over the outcome as they had long viewed Minurso as ineffective at best and complicit with Morocco at worst.
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