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Tata Steel’s domestic business shines in Q2; Netherlands uncertainty poses risk

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In short

The company's September quarter results were propelled by a 23% jump in standalone domestic Ebitda, which reached ₹10,315 crore amid healthy pricing. In contrast, the European footprint suffered from an Ebitda loss of ₹719 crore in the United Kingdom alongside falling earnings in the Netherlands. Management remains optimistic for the second half of FY27, anticipating third-quarter domestic realizations to climb by approximately ₹3,500 per tonne. Meanwhile, clarity regarding Dutch decarbonization policies is expected by March to help resolve ongoing regional investment uncertainties.

Key points

  • Domestic price resilience and volume strength are offsetting persistent European operatio…: Domestic price resilience and volume strength are offsetting persistent European operational losses and softer overseas sales volumes.
  • Long-term European restructuring hinges on resolving Dutch environmental uncertainties an…: Long-term European restructuring hinges on resolving Dutch environmental uncertainties and commissioning a UK electric arc furnace by 2029.
  • Medium-term domestic volume expansion may face limitations through FY30 until a major 5-m…: Medium-term domestic volume expansion may face limitations through FY30 until a major 5-million-tonne-per-annum facility opens in FY31.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Tata Steel’s consolidated Ebitda grew 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to ₹10,500 crore in the September quarter (Q2FY27), supported by improved realization and higher volumes in the domestic business.

Revenue from the domestic and overseas business increased 11% to ₹65,450 crore even as sales volume was flat at 7.92 million tonnes. European operations reported strong realization growth, but profit declined as lower volumes hurt operating leverage.

With this, H1FY27 revenue and Ebitda growth stand at 13% and 21%, respectively. The second half of FY27 could be better, with the management expecting volumes to pick up and prices to remain at higher levels.

Domestic realizations in Q3 are expected to be about ₹3,500 per tonne higher than ₹70,400 reported in Q2, which was flattish sequentially, but up 14% y-o-y. This would be partly offset by an about $15 per tonne sequential rise in the cost of coking coal. Ongoing annual contract negotiations in Europe, amid the firm pricing environment, should reflect from Q4 or Q1FY28.

Tata Steel’s standalone Ebitda, which includes its domestic operations, grew 23% y-o-y to ₹10,315 crore. The overseas businesses…

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