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Strong El Nino in coming years can cut crop yields by up to 10%, says study on ASEAN agriculture

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty study projects that rice, maize, and sugarcane will experience declining average yields over the next two decades, whereas soybean and cassava outputs may rise. Rice faces the most severe vulnerabilities, with annual yields potentially plunging by 15 percent in unfavorable weather cycles. In response, Singapore proposed the Food Security Resilience Pact 2045 during the 48th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry. This planned initiative aims to strengthen regional financing, emergency response mechanisms, supply chains, and adaptation measures.

Key points

  • Severe weather volatility will cause stark annual fluctuations, with rice harvests droppi…: Severe weather volatility will cause stark annual fluctuations, with rice harvests dropping by as much as 15 percent during poor seasons.
  • Projected yield declines in key crops like rice, maize, and sugarcane contrast with poten…: Projected yield declines in key crops like rice, maize, and sugarcane contrast with potential production gains for cassava and soybeans.
  • ASEAN member states are seeking coordinated strategies to reinforce agricultural systems…: ASEAN member states are seeking coordinated strategies to reinforce agricultural systems through enhanced financing, climate adaptation, and emergency preparedness.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

- Strong El Nino events could cut Southeast Asia’s crop production by up to 10%, with rice hit hardest. The study covers 2025 to 2044 and warns of more heatwaves and uneven rainfall.

- Rice, maize and sugarcane may fall, while cassava and soybean could rise. But all crops still face risks from heat, floods and drought, and yields may swing sharply year to year.

- Singapore said ASEAN must act together on food security. It will table a “Food Security Resilience Pact 2045” to boost climate adaptation, supply chains, emergency planning and financing.

AI generated

SINGAPORE - Average crop production in Southeast Asia could fall by up to 10 per cent in years with very strong El Nino events, according to a new study.

Drier and hotter weather caused by the climate phenomenon is likely to affect rice production the most out of the five major crops assessed, according to the ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty (AACIT) study.

The study, jointly conducted by the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) and the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Tropical Marine Science Institute,…

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