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SpaceX, Tesla extend losses as midterm results cloud data center, merger outlook

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In short

Investors reacted swiftly to the Texas political shift, sending Tesla shares down over 11% and SpaceX down nearly 9% on Thursday over heightened scrutiny fears. The projected regulatory fallout could freeze about 45% of planned U.S. data center capacity expansions, clouding Musk's proposed $119 billion Terafab chip manufacturing plant in Texas. This disruption directly impacts operational dependencies, as SpaceX relies on renting compute capacity for over half of its third-quarter sales while Tesla sells storage to data centers. Furthermore, analysts warn the altered political landscape in Austin and Washington makes securing approval for a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger by 2027 significantl…

Key points

  • Goldman Sachs projects that Democratic victories could lead to short-term moratoria affec…: Goldman Sachs projects that Democratic victories could lead to short-term moratoria affecting roughly 45% of planned U.S. data center expansions.
  • Musk's proposed Terafab joint venture, an up to $119 billion chip manufacturing plant, fa…: Musk's proposed Terafab joint venture, an up to $119 billion chip manufacturing plant, faces severe uncertainty amid the shifting regulatory landscape.
  • Special committees exploring a proposed merger between Tesla and SpaceX now face a substa…: Special committees exploring a proposed merger between Tesla and SpaceX now face a substantially tougher path to finalize the deal by 2027.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

SpaceX, which has leaned into the AI data center boom, is headquartered in Texas alongside Tesla, where Democrats won the races for Senate, governor and attorney general on Tuesday. Musk had spent heavily to back Republicans in the midterms.

The selloff also reflects worries that Democratic gains could bring tougher scrutiny of Musk's businesses.

Combined, Musk's companies were on track to lose more than $380 billion in market capitalization this week. Tesla shares slumped over 11% on Thursday, while SpaceX shares slid nearly 9%.

Data centers have become a political flashpoint in the state. SpaceX has increasingly turned to AI computing as a revenue driver, with more than half of its third-quarter sales coming from renting out computing capacity.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated this week that Democratic wins at the state and local level are likely to lead to short-term data center moratoria, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data center capacity expansion.

Tesla is also tied to the buildout, with its energy unit pitching storage systems to data center operators.

In October, Musk announced plans for Terafab, a…

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