Elevated energy costs linked to the war in Iran are driving widespread adoption of electric vehicles and renewables, which now cover two-thirds of the world's growing energy demand. Consequently, fossil fuel pollution is expected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026 as emissions from burning oil drop by 2%. However, total global emissions are still projected to climb to 43.3 billion tonnes due to agricultural expansion and major fires in south-east Asia. Furthermore, researchers warn that policy shifts under US President Donald Trump and strong Indian coal consumption threaten to reverse this progress.
Key points
The remaining carbon budget to avoid permanently exceeding 1.5C of global heating has dwi…: The remaining carbon budget to avoid permanently exceeding 1.5C of global heating has dwindled to roughly 150 billion tonnes, equal to under four years of current emissions.
Surging solar and wind power generation alongside electric vehicle adoption are successfu…: Surging solar and wind power generation alongside electric vehicle adoption are successfully satisfying two-thirds of the planet's growing energy demand.
Continued reliance on coal in India alongside potential oil price declines could quickly…: Continued reliance on coal in India alongside potential oil price declines could quickly undermine recent reductions in fossil fuel pollution.
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Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year.
Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists. Emissions from burning oil alone will drop by 2% as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles instead.
The findings, presented on Tuesday morning at the Cop31 climate talks hosted by Turkey in Antalya, show both the impact of the Iran war and the global expansion of cheap renewable energy, chiefly solar and wind power.
Talk of a global turnaround would be premature, however, the report’s authors and other analysts said. The report was published in Nature Climate Change. The reduction in emissions from fossil fuels for 2026 will be about 0.4% compared with last year.
Yet this year’s slight fall could be temporary, and was more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change, following major fires…
Urban planners have designated the Woodlands parcel for residential development without conservation set-asides, concluding the fragmented habitat cannot support long-term ecological viability once enclosed by major infrastructure. However, an environmental assessment warns the project will severely disrupt movement corridors for threatened species like the Sunda pangolin and straw-headed bulbul. Planners have proposed perimeter green spaces and specialized landscaping to maintain regional wildlife connectivity.
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