Finance1 min read

Santoli: AI bull market almost surely needs tech stocks to recover to keep advancing

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Investors have shifted capital into defensive $1 trillion market-cap giants like Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway, and Eli Lilly, which gained $550 billion collectively over the past month. However, this flight to safety has left the broader market pinned near May levels while tech indices sustain technical damage. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recently dropped 3.8% below its late-July low, reinforcing advice from strategists to maintain defensive postures.

Key points

  • Mega-cap firms turning free-cash-flow-negative has increased capital costs and complicate…: Mega-cap firms turning free-cash-flow-negative has increased capital costs and complicated the current phase of artificial intelligence investments.
  • Severe selling pressure late in October ran counter to seasonal expectations, leading tec…: Severe selling pressure late in October ran counter to seasonal expectations, leading technical strategists to advise clients to remain defensive.
  • The broader S&P 500 remains stalled near May levels despite absorbing two consecutive ear…: The broader S&P 500 remains stalled near May levels despite absorbing two consecutive earnings seasons delivering 30% annual profit growth.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

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The road to bull-market glory does not run through Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway and Eli Lilly.

There's been a virtual buying panic in traditionally defensive, high-quality stocks over the past few weeks, a near-equal-and-opposite offset to the selling pressure in semiconductors and AI-build-out spenders. The three stocks above — the only members of the $1 trillion market-cap club not in Big Tech – have collectively added $550 billion in market value in the past month, almost making up for what Alphabet has lost.

The Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) are rushing toward one another in a satisfying picture of symmetry that nonetheless reflects an almost comical level of tactical rotation executed by an investment community accustomed to playing one factor against another.

While this to-and-fro has so far protected the S&P 500 as a whole from an appreciable setback for months, it has left it stymied around levels that date back to May — before we got two earnings-reporting seasons showing 30% annual profit growth.

Finance