The Institute for the Study of War documented that Russian forces captured only 117.38 square kilometres across the first ten months of 2026, even suffering net territorial losses during September and October. Ukraine's military estimated Russian casualties reached 381,300 killed or severely wounded over the same timeframe, peaking at 54,400 in October against an intake of only 24,000 to 30,000 recruits. At the same time, Ukrainian drone campaigns successfully targeted eight Russian refineries within a single week, including sites in Bashkortostan and Nizhny Novgorod. Moscow has responded by unleashing thousands of drones and dozens of missiles against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, tri…
Key points
Severe personnel attrition has outpaced recruitment capacities, directly contributing to…: Severe personnel attrition has outpaced recruitment capacities, directly contributing to Russia losing firmly held and infiltrated positions in autumn.
American energy traders are refusing to honour a bilateral deal between Donald Trump and…: American energy traders are refusing to honour a bilateral deal between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, leaving Russian diesel cargoes unsold.
Ukrainian leadership views Russia's deadly long-range attacks on humanitarian sites and e…: Ukrainian leadership views Russia's deadly long-range attacks on humanitarian sites and energy grids as direct retaliation for frontline failures.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Russia is suffering losses on the battlefield, as US traders reportedly refuse to honour Trump’s diesel deal with Putin.
Russia’s battlefield gains in Ukraine have fallen to almost nothing this year, according to the latest figures from independent observers and Kyiv’s military.
Territory seized by Russian forces in the first 10 months of 2026 amounts to 117.38 sq km (45.32 sq miles), according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that uses open-source geolocated footage.
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By comparison, gains in 2025 were 5,304 sq km (2,047.95 sq miles), including 473 sq km (182.63 sq miles) of Russian territory recaptured in the Kursk region, while in 2024 they were 3,604 sq…
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