Finance1 min read

Rupee touches strongest since April as foreign inflows offset firm dollar

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Strong foreign portfolio buying of nearly $6 billion in November drove the Indian currency to its highest mark since April, ending the day up 0.2% at 93.69 per dollar. These substantial equity inflows, the largest recorded since September 2024, successfully countered broader greenback strength as markets fully priced in an upcoming U.S. interest rate hike. Domestic attention now turns to upcoming consumer price data, where economists anticipate a noticeable acceleration in inflation.

Key points

  • Strong equity inflows and positive non-deliverable forward sentiment have almost halved t…: Strong equity inflows and positive non-deliverable forward sentiment have almost halved the currency's year-to-date losses from its record low of 96.96.
  • Robust foreign portfolio investments have effectively insulated the domestic currency aga…: Robust foreign portfolio investments have effectively insulated the domestic currency against hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and a firm U.S. dollar.
  • Market participants are shifting their immediate focus to domestic inflation numbers to a…: Market participants are shifting their immediate focus to domestic inflation numbers to assess broader macroeconomic pressures on the currency.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The rupee ended at 93.69 per dollar, up 0.2% on day and after touching a high of 93.6350 in afternoon trading.

The unit has recovered since hitting a record low of 96.96 in May and threatening to breach it last month. It is now down about 4% year-to-date, nearly halving its losses from its worst point in the year so far.

Traders pointed to broad-based dollar selling interest through the session, with activity in the NDF market too pointing to sentiment around the currency turning positive.

This helped the rupee stave off pressure from a broadly stronger dollar, which was lifted by hot inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Traders are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and have baked in a slim chance of an outsized 50-basis-point hike as well.

"The case is increasingly building for the Fed to take rates into restrictive territory to slow aggregate demand and bring inflation back to target," analysts at ING said in a note.

While the prospect of higher…

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