Finance1 min read

Rupee to benefit from dollar retreat, plunging US yields; oil surge tempers impact

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Global equity markets retreated after underwhelming technology earnings and skepticism over artificial intelligence spending prompted a flight to safety, sending U.S. Treasury yields significantly lower. Meanwhile, escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia pushed Brent crude up to $117.84 per barrel, sparking major supply disruption fears. These high oil prices are expected to blunt the advantages India gains from a weaker greenback. A private bank currency trader emphasized that Reserve Bank of India intervention will be necessary to navigate the resulting risk aversion.

Key points

  • Tumbling American bond yields and a softer dollar index of 101.70 are providing modest op…: Tumbling American bond yields and a softer dollar index of 101.70 are providing modest opening support for domestic currency markets.
  • Soaring international crude prices threaten to wipe out the financial relief generated by…: Soaring international crude prices threaten to wipe out the financial relief generated by declining sovereign borrowing costs in the United States.
  • Currency traders expect active Reserve Bank of India intervention to remain essential for…: Currency traders expect active Reserve Bank of India intervention to remain essential for dampening imported volatility and rising energy costs.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The rupee is expected to open flat to marginally higher, per traders, having settled at 95.26 to the dollar on Thursday.

A fresh bout of AI-related jitters sparked a flight to safety in markets, driving investors into US Treasuries, pushing the two-year yield down 8 basis points to its lowest level in seven weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.90%, down 46 basis points from its recent peak.

The dollar, however, failed to benefit from safe-haven demand, with the dollar index falling to 101.70 with the decline in US yields weighing on the currency. Asian currencies traded flat to modestly higher.

Risk Aversion On Ai Worries

US equity indexes fell on Thursday, while futures pointed to further losses on disappointing earnings from major technology companies that brought back into focus questions over whether massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off.Asian equities tracked US shares lower, with the steepest declines in markets with higher exposure to the AI trade.

Adding to the risk-averse mood in Asia was a fresh surge in oil prices amid concerns over supply disruptions after…

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