Vodafone Idea share price target: Vodafone Idea shares could rally as much as 143% from current levels under an optimistic scenario outlined by global investment banking firm Jefferies. However, the brokerage has also warned of significant downside risks, with its bearish outlook pointing to a potential fall in the telecom stock to ₹9.
In its latest note dated October 27, Jefferies revised its base-case price target for Vodafone Idea to ₹16 from ₹20 previously. The new target indicates an upside potential of almost 35% from current levels. The brokerage's three scenarios reflect the importance of future tariff increases, network expansion and subscriber growth in determining the company's valuation.
The bull-case target of ₹29 indicates a 144% upside potential. This scenario assumes cumulative tariff hikes of 25% over financial years 2027-2029 and values the company at 22 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA. At the other end of the spectrum, the bear case assumes no tariff hikes during the same period and applies a valuation multiple of 18 times EV/EBITDA, resulting in a target price of ₹9, which implies a downside of 24%.
Despite a recent correction, Jefferies believes Vodafone Idea's risk-reward profile has become more attractive. The stock has declined nearly 23% from its recent highs, even as subscriber trends have improved. At 21 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA, the stock is trading below its five-year average multiple, according to the brokerage.
“Over FY26-29E, we estimate VIL offers a strong 11%/25% CAGR in revenues/cash EBITDA. Assuming 45-55% incremental cash EBITDA margins and 0-25% cumulative tariff hike between FY27-29, VIL's cash EBITDA could range between Rs147-Rs224bn, implying 20-45% EBITDA CAGR,” said the brokerage.
Jefferies expects the combination of network investment and tariff increases to support a significant improvement in the company's operating performance over the coming years. It projects revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% between financial years 2026 and 2029, while EBITDA is expected to expand at a much faster CAGR of 25% over the same period.
Network expansion is expected to play a central role in this recovery. Jefferies estimates that Vodafone Idea's sites on the network will increase 26% to 2,61,000 over the period. A larger network could help the company attract more subscribers by improving coverage and service quality. Better network experience could also reduce customer churn, helping it retain existing users.
The brokerage expects Vodafone Idea to add 6 million subscribers between financial years 2027 and 2029. A stronger subscriber base, combined with higher tariffs, could improve the company's ability to convert price increases into revenue growth.
Tariff hikes could have an outsized impact on Vodafone Idea's financial performance because of its high operating leverage. Jefferies estimates that every 10% increase in tariffs could lift the company's cash EBITDA by 17%, translating into a 38% increase in its market capitalisation.
Vodafone Idea shares fell 2% to an intraday low of ₹11.82. The stock has lost 12% over the past month and 8.5% over three months, reflecting the recent pressure on its market price.
The longer-term performance has been stronger. Vodafone Idea shares have gained 19% over six months and risen 25% over the past year. The stock touched a 52-week high of ₹15.78 in September 2026, while its 52-week low of ₹8.14 was recorded in April 2026.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels.
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