Politics1 min read

Pact on South China Sea code of conduct unlikely, as ASEAN leaders gather

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In short

Negotiators have completed about 80 percent of the agreement, but fundamental disputes over jurisdiction and the inclusion of outside nations have stalled progress ahead of a 2026 completion target. Physical encounters have sharply intensified since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022, characterized by the China Coast Guard firing water cannons at Philippine vessels. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro engaged in direct talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to manage diplomatic strains, yet comprehensive consensus remains out of reach.

Key points

  • Disagreements regarding the geographical scope of the accord and the rights of external n…: Disagreements regarding the geographical scope of the accord and the rights of external nations continue to block final consensus.
  • China asserts broad jurisdiction over the South China Sea despite an international ruling…: China asserts broad jurisdiction over the South China Sea despite an international ruling in 2016 that invalidated its maritime claims.
  • Competing claims involve China alongside multiple Southeast Asian nations, including the…: Competing claims involve China alongside multiple Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Finishing negotiations for disputed South China Sea agreement will be a ‘tall order’, analysts say., amid China-Philippines tensions, analysts say.

A long-awaited pact between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China for a “code of conduct” in the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the regional bloc’s annual gathering of leaders in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

The agreement would aim to manage tensions and prevent conflict at sea. But talks have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years.

That deadline fell on 2026 – the year the Philippines took its turn as chair of ASEAN. Under its leadership, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said negotiators have met at least once a month.

But they have fallen short of arriving at a consensus ahead of the summit.

“I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished,” DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday, adding that there are…

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