Speculators are heavily favoring downside contracts over bullish bets for both companies ahead of their Monday afternoon financial releases. Apple's put volume accounted for 385,000 of 620,000 total contracts traded by midday, driving put pricing to the 86th percentile of the past year. Meanwhile, Palantir's put pricing surged to the 97th percentile, reflecting intense positioning after previous announcements triggered extreme price swings.
Key points
Options markets project a near-4% swing for Apple stock, easily topping its two-year hist…: Options markets project a near-4% swing for Apple stock, easily topping its two-year historical post-earnings average of 2.5%.
Extreme demand has pushed Palantir put option pricing into the 97th percentile of its pas…: Extreme demand has pushed Palantir put option pricing into the 97th percentile of its past-year range.
Speculators are heavily positioning for downside despite Apple gaining 25% this year whil…: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside despite Apple gaining 25% this year while maintaining a negative correlation to the Nasdaq 100.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
It's not just the neoclouds and hyperscalers that investors are anxious about.
Options data show a surge in bearish trading in anticipation of both Palantir and Apple earnings Monday afternoon. The two stocks have been on trajectories that are distinct from the broader AI trade – with Apple, in particular, trading almost inversely to the Nasdaq 100 Index – but that's not stopping speculators from betting on a reversal in their shares after earnings.
Of the 620,000 options traded on Apple by midday, 385,000 were puts, with at least 113,000 puts likely initiated by buyers, compared to just 64,000 calls bought, Cboe LiveVol data show. At the same time, the price of puts reached the 86th percentile of the past year, compared to the 51st percentile for calls, according to data from Nations Indexes.
Apple stock is up 25% this year and currently trading with a negative 0.65 correlation with the Nasdaq 100, ThinkOrSwim data show. Options are implying just under a 4% move for the stock, compared to the average 2.5% swing after earnings the past two years, according…
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