ClimateTuesday, November 10, 20261 min read

Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say

By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press · Via PBS NewsHour · Published by Everything Blog

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Presented at U.N. climate negotiations in Antalya, Turkey, the study shows oil emissions dropped nearly 2% while natural gas declined 0.3%. Despite these fossil fuel reductions, coal emissions rose by 0.6% and overall carbon dioxide output increased by 1% due to deforestation and peat fires. Experts debate whether accelerated electric vehicle adoption in Asia will lock in these gains or if windfall profits will trigger an aggressive drilling boom elsewhere.

Key points

The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel polluti…: The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel pollution has declined.
Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing exp…: Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing expanded drilling outside the Middle East.
The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every si…: The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every single second.

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By — Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/oil-shock-from-iran-war-led-to-drop-in-carbon-pollution-scientists-say Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say Science Nov 10, 2026 2:05 PM EST Global carbon pollution dropped this year ever so slightly, but it's more because of oil shocks reverberating from the Iran war than anything the world has done to fight climate change, scientists said in a new study. In 2026, the world emitted 42.2 billion tons (38.2 billion metric tons) of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. It's a 0.4% decrease from last year, according to the scientists of the Global Carbon Project. "It's downwards which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what's happened in the Strait of Hormuz," said study co-author Glen Peters, a scientist at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway. "So in a way, a little bit of good news, but…

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The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel polluti…: The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel pollution has declined.
Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing exp…: Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing expanded drilling outside the Middle East.
The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every si…: The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every single second.

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In short

Key Points

The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel polluti…: The 2026 drop represents only the third time this century that global fossil fuel pollution has declined.
Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing exp…: Windfall profits among unaffected producers threaten future progress by incentivizing expanded drilling outside the Middle East.
The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every si…: The atmosphere continues to absorb over 1,200 metric tons of heat-trapping gases every single second.

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Climate

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Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say

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