Market analysts, including experts at Rapidan Energy Group and Lombard Odier, estimate an 80% probability of renewed military fighting between Washington and Tehran. Supply anxieties are already manifesting physically, underscored by reports of three tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz alongside broader maritime threats hovering near record rates. While a proposal sent via Qatar offers a narrow diplomatic avenue, crude benchmarks are positioned to exceed $100 per barrel if hostilities break out.
Key points
Crude benchmarks could surpass the $100 per barrel mark if military clashes officially re…: Crude benchmarks could surpass the $100 per barrel mark if military clashes officially resume in the region.
Maritime threats remain severe as UK Maritime Trade Operations data shows regional vessel…: Maritime threats remain severe as UK Maritime Trade Operations data shows regional vessel attacks continuing near record rates.
A diplomatic off-ramp remains possible after a senior Iranian official revealed a nuclear…: A diplomatic off-ramp remains possible after a senior Iranian official revealed a nuclear proposal was delivered to Washington via Qatar.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Oil prices rose Friday as investors weighed the risk of renewed military escalation between the U.S. and Iran following the midterm elections, alongside prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Brent crude futures climbed 1.67% to $99.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 1.43% to $91.69 per barrel.
The gains came as investors assessed whether the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections could pave the way for renewed actions against Iran, potentially threatening oil supplies from the Middle East.
Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy Group founder and president, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that he sees an 80% probability of military fighting resuming, forecasting that both oil benchmarks could climb above $100 a barrel.
However, hopes for a diplomatic resolution have also emerged after Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official.
Iran reported three additional attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicated that attacks on vessels were continuing at a near-record rate.
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