The brokerage upgraded its FY27 crude oil forecast to $100 per barrel, driving a 16% to 17% increase in FY27 earnings estimates for both ONGC and Oil India. Domestic operational conditions are strengthening following amendments to the Oilfields Act and the Samudra Manthan initiative. Kotak favored ONGC as its top pick due to new field output and a strategic partnership with BP for its vital Western Offshore assets. Conversely, Oil India received a Sell rating because restricted long-term oil reserves and weaker realisations are expected to squeeze company margins.
Key points
ONGC offers a projected 57% upside potential toward a fair value target of ₹360 per share…: ONGC offers a projected 57% upside potential toward a fair value target of ₹360 per share under a reiterated Buy rating.
Oil India faces an estimated downside risk of roughly 20% toward a ₹365 fair value target…: Oil India faces an estimated downside risk of roughly 20% toward a ₹365 fair value target under a Sell recommendation.
Limited long-term oil reserve volumes are expected to curtail Oil India's overall crude p…: Limited long-term oil reserve volumes are expected to curtail Oil India's overall crude production following an initial output ramp-up.
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India's upstream oil and gas producers could benefit from higher crude prices, with the West Asia conflict and persistent supply disruptions keeping energy markets volatile. Against this backdrop, Kotak Institutional Equities has raised its FY27 crude oil price assumption to $100 per barrel from $90per barrel, while retaining its FY28 and long-term forecasts at $75 per barrel.
Dated Brent crude has averaged $126 per barrel so far in October and $104 per barrel to date in FY27, according to the brokerage. Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered significantly, renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure and oil tankers have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions. Crude and product tanker rates have also climbed to multi-year highs.
The brokerage believes the policy environment for domestic upstream companies has improved following amendments to the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Act, royalty reforms and the government's Samudra Manthan initiative. It also highlighted the favourable pricing framework for gas from new wells, linked to 12% of Brent crude prices.
ONGC remains the brokerage's preferred pick in the upstream oil and gas space, supported…
Financial sector leaders are pushing back against government plans to double the banking surcharge to fund household relief measures. Industry figures warn that using commercial bank levies to subsidise unrelated cost-of-living expenses threatens international competitiveness and domestic lending capacity. The dispute highlights growing corporate friction with the Treasury over the predictability of fiscal policy.
Robust quarterly earnings and an industry-wide rally have bolstered investor confidence in the private lender, prompting multiple domestic brokerages to issue upgraded targets up to ₹550. Core income expansion and declining credit provisions served as primary catalysts for the market rebound. Concurrently, legal protections have intensified as judicial authorities acted to eliminate widespread online impersonation schemes targeting the financial group.
Market participants witnessed broad buying interest across domestic exchanges as trading concluded on a strong positive note. The upward momentum provided substantial support to key benchmark indices during the session. Investors tracked positive closing indicators as the broader equity market maintained its advance.