Finance1 min read

November could favour bulls, but macro headwinds cloud outlook

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Prolonged festive demand and solid corporate balance sheets are positioning Indian equities for potential gains alongside a recent resurgence in foreign portfolio investments. However, elevated global crude costs approaching $115 per barrel present a substantial risk factor tied to Middle East tensions. In October, broad indices managed gains, but mid- and small-cap segments suffered noticeable losses, underscoring persistent underlying volatility. Analysts therefore recommend concentrating on domestically anchored industries like capital goods and private financials that maintain healthy order books.

Key points

  • Renewed foreign capital inflows and corporate earnings provide strong domestic support fo…: Renewed foreign capital inflows and corporate earnings provide strong domestic support for Indian equities.
  • Persistently high energy prices continue to pose the main macroeconomic risk to sustainab…: Persistently high energy prices continue to pose the main macroeconomic risk to sustainable market expansion.
  • Analysts recommend targeting private financials and capital goods companies with strong p…: Analysts recommend targeting private financials and capital goods companies with strong pricing power and domestic visibility.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, said the extension of festive activity into November, encouraging corporate earnings and renewed foreign buying, could be tailwinds for equities.

This year, the extension of festive activity into November, improving corporate earnings and the return of foreign investors could support market sentiment. However, global uncertainties and elevated oil prices remain key risks.

In October, the Sensex and Nifty gained 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the BSE Midcap 150 and BSE SmallCap 250 declined 4% and 6.3%, respectively.

Read more: Nifty IT’s 18% rally may mark a durable leadership cycle; 35,000 next: LKP's Vatsal Bhuva

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net buyers over the past two weeks, purchasing nearly $2 billion worth of Indian equities. Experts said global investors had been chasing the AI and semiconductor trade in markets such as the US, Taiwan and South Korea, as part of a rotation towards growth opportunities and relatively cheaper valuations.

However, crude oil remains a key risk. Concerns over a possible resumption of US military strikes on Iran have kept oil prices elevated, with…

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