Finance1 min read

MRF share price target after Q2: Tyre maker faces margin pressure, but Citi sees 30% upside; sets ₹1,65,238 target

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In short

Elevated raw material expenses drove MRF's profit after tax down by 28% to ₹3.7 billion during the September quarter, despite an 18% increase in overall revenue. Replacement market price hikes of 13-15% in the first half of FY27 helped partially buffer the blow from expensive inputs. Citi expects earnings to recover by FY28 thanks to falling crude prices, whereas Motilal Oswal cut its FY27 forecast by 17% and issued a Sell rating.

Key points

  • Citi maintained an Outperform rating with a ₹1,65,238 target price on expectations of FY2…: Citi maintained an Outperform rating with a ₹1,65,238 target price on expectations of FY28 margin recovery.
  • Motilal Oswal kept a Sell rating with a ₹1,05,400 target price citing flat earnings growt…: Motilal Oswal kept a Sell rating with a ₹1,05,400 target price citing flat earnings growth through FY28.
  • Management highlighted persistent near-term risks involving Middle East supply disruption…: Management highlighted persistent near-term risks involving Middle East supply disruptions and a subnormal monsoon.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Global brokerage firm Citi has maintained its bullish outlook on MRF even as the company's September-quarter performance was hit by rising raw material prices. The brokerage has retained its 'Outperform' rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,65,238, indicating an upside potential of 30% from the stock's Wednesday closing price of ₹1,27,125.

Earlier this week, the tyre manufacturer reported an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase in revenue to ₹85.2 billion. However, higher-than-expected raw material inflation led to a 430-basis-point (bp) YoY contraction in its EBITDA margin to 10.7%. The margin pressure also resulted in a 28% YoY decline in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹3.7 billion.

The brokerage said the margin pressure would have been even higher if the company had not undertaken price increases of 13-15% in the replacement segment during the first half of FY27. It also noted that cost-reduction initiatives had helped partially cushion the impact of higher input prices, CNBC-TV18 reported. Mint could not independently verify the report.

Citi pointed out that the benefit of price increases in the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) segment typically…

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