International brokerages are projecting up to 30% upside for the National Stock Exchange of India, underpinned by structurally low market penetration where only 3.2% of the working-age population trades cash equities. Analysts expect non-transaction revenues to expand alongside normalized profit growth over the coming years as household savings transition into equities. Nevertheless, the exchange faces headwinds from shifting regulations and market share pressures, particularly after losing index options dominance to domestic rival BSE.
Key points
Global brokerages maintain a positive outlook for the bourse based on growing retail part…: Global brokerages maintain a positive outlook for the bourse based on growing retail participation and rising systematic investment plans.
Non-transaction revenues are projected by JPMorgan to reach roughly 25% of total revenues…: Non-transaction revenues are projected by JPMorgan to reach roughly 25% of total revenues by financial year 2029.
Defending the index options segment remains critical because it represents 52.6% of the c…: Defending the index options segment remains critical because it represents 52.6% of the company's operating revenue in financial year 2026.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) may be approaching a new phase of growth as more Indian households move their savings into financial markets. That is the central investment case made by global brokerages Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, which have initiated coverage on the exchange with Overweight ratings, betting on its market dominance and the long-term expansion of India's capital markets.
NSE shares were trading largely flat on Monday, 2 November, despite the positive brokerage calls. Morgan Stanley has set a price target of ₹2,315 per share, implying an upside of around 30% from Friday's closing price. JPMorgan has assigned a target of ₹2,130, indicating a potential upside of nearly 20%.
Both brokerages believe NSE is well placed to benefit from rising retail participation, growing systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions and the increasing share of household savings flowing into equities. However, they also flag market-share pressures in index options and regulatory changes as risks investors should watch.
Morgan Stanley sees NSE as a strong play on India's financialisation story, backed by its dominant liquidity, scalable technology and attractive operating…
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