Politics1 min read

More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Historic levels of advance voter participation are placing the current midterm cycle on track to eclipse prior records set in 2018. Across jurisdictions tracking party registrations, registered Democrats lead with 44 percent of returned ballots, while Republicans trail at 31.2 percent. Data from southern regions such as North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas border counties demonstrates growing turnout among minority communities. Many voters are intentionally shifting toward in-person early voting rather than mailing ballots to avoid postal issues and higher error disqualifications.

Key points

  • Election data indicates advance participation could eclipse the historic voter turnout ra…: Election data indicates advance participation could eclipse the historic voter turnout rates established in both 2018 and 2020.
  • Minority voter engagement is expanding across key southern regions and southern Texas bor…: Minority voter engagement is expanding across key southern regions and southern Texas border counties compared to prior midterm cycles.
  • Voters increasingly prefer in-person early balloting to circumvent the higher disqualific…: Voters increasingly prefer in-person early balloting to circumvent the higher disqualification rates and logistical concerns associated with postal voting.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

- Published

With less than a week to go until the US midterm elections, which will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years, more than 43 million Americans have already voted.

Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, representing a much higher rate than in most previous elections.

Texas has seen the highest above-average turnout rate so far, says Prof Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database. Hispanic communities are also seeing a much higher turnout than usual.

Overall turnout appears on track to outpace 2020, or even 2018, which beat the 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.

Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters, says McDonald. More than 5.8 million ballots have already been cast in the Lone Star state, which has emerged as a key battleground that could decide which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Data from states that require voters to register a political affiliation…

Politics