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Moderna raises 2026 outlook as CEO says newer vaccines are gaining traction

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In short

Driven by strong international Covid shot demand, third-quarter revenue climbed 29% to $1.31 billion, generating net income of $162 million when Wall Street anticipated a sizable loss. Management credited this turnaround to geographic diversification and newly approved immunizations, including a standalone flu shot authorized in August. However, due to seasonal contracting cycles, the new influenza shot will see only a limited domestic rollout in 2026. The company is also advancing a personalized cancer vaccine alongside partner Merck to target melanoma.

Key points

  • Expanding global markets and long-term government partnerships are successfully offsettin…: Expanding global markets and long-term government partnerships are successfully offsetting post-pandemic declines in baseline vaccine demand.
  • Full-year contributions from a next-generation Covid vaccine and a newly authorized flu s…: Full-year contributions from a next-generation Covid vaccine and a newly authorized flu shot are driving future commercial gains.
  • Clinical progress continues on an experimental personalized cancer vaccine developed in c…: Clinical progress continues on an experimental personalized cancer vaccine developed in collaboration with pharmaceutical partner Merck.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Moderna on Friday smashed third-quarter revenue and earnings estimates and hiked its outlook for full-year sales growth, as some of its newer products gain momentum.

The biotech company now expects 2026 revenue growth of 15% to 25%, up from its previous guidance of up to 10%.

"The new product and the diversification of geography is what has led to such a strong Q3," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in an interview ahead of the results.

For example, he said the company is seeing the "full-year impact" of its next-generation mRNA Covid vaccine, which won U.S. approval in May 2025. Bancel noted that Covid is a seasonal business and vaccine contracts are typically established in the first quarter, so Moderna's shot only had a "small launch" to start with last year.

Moderna's new stand-alone flu shot, which was approved in the U.S. in August, will similarly have a "limited launch" in the country in 2026 given the timing, he said.

Here's what Moderna reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts…

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