Between 2010 and 2025, the national school-age population dropped by roughly 2.1 million, with public school rosters alone shrinking by 1.5 million students from 2019 to 2024. Recent immigration crackdowns have drastically worsened these trends, forcing district leaders in places like Los Angeles, Texas, and Florida to manage unexpected enrollment drops. Researchers point out that this is the first simultaneous occurrence of low birth rates and reduced immigration since the Great Depression. Projections indicate these compounding factors could eventually strip approximately $11 billion in annual funding from public school systems.
Key points
Forty states are currently dealing with sustained drops in public school student enrollme…: Forty states are currently dealing with sustained drops in public school student enrollment.
Pre-crackdown federal forecasts projected that public schools would lose an additional tw…: Pre-crackdown federal forecasts projected that public schools would lose an additional two million students by 2030.
Joint research from Bellwether and WestEd estimates this demographic contraction could re…: Joint research from Bellwether and WestEd estimates this demographic contraction could reduce public school funding by $11 billion annually.
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LOS ANGELES — Long before the Trump administration started deporting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, many with school-age children, public schools nationwide faced a massive and accelerating drop in student enrollment caused mostly by shrinking families.
"Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools," said Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District (LAUSD), the second largest in the country, which lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades.
LA isn't alone. The population of children under age 18 began to fall nationwide after 2010, according to U.S. Census data, dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025.
With public schools in much of the country facing a demographic cliff, the Trump administration last year began detaining and expelling large numbers of foreign residents. A study by the Migration Policy Institute found as many as 1.9 million people left the U.S. during the first 18 months of Trump's second term.
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