Finance1 min read

Japan's real wages rise for ninth month in September, backing BOJ rate hike

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In short

Japan's real wages gained 2.2 percent in September, expanding from August's revised 1.6 percent increase even as the wage-calculation inflation rate rose to 2.4 percent. Average nominal wages climbed 4.6 percent to 311,409 yen, marking the fastest year-on-year expansion recorded since January 1997. Regular base pay rose 3.7 percent, which labor officials identified as the foundational driver of the overall wage improvements. Meanwhile, overtime pay growth moderated to 3.6 percent, and special payments spiked 32.6 percent due to a statistical quirk.

Key points

  • Accelerating real wages offer the Bank of Japan substantial justification to continue rai…: Accelerating real wages offer the Bank of Japan substantial justification to continue raising interest rates in upcoming sessions.
  • A 32.6 percent jump in special payments was driven by a statistical anomaly rather than t…: A 32.6 percent jump in special payments was driven by a statistical anomaly rather than true bonus expansions.
  • Broadening inflation alongside continuous wage gains has led analysts to anticipate a pos…: Broadening inflation alongside continuous wage gains has led analysts to anticipate a possible rate hike as early as next month.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

TOKYO, Nov 6 : Japan's real wages rose 2.2 per cent in September from a year earlier, marking the ninth consecutive month of gains, government data showed on Friday, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising interest rates.

• Growth in real, or inflation-adjusted, pay picked up from August's revised 1.6 per cent gain.

• Average nominal wages, or total cash earnings, rose 4.6 per cent to 311,409 yen ($1,972.94), the fastest rise since January 1997 and up from August's revised 3.9 per cent growth.

• Workers' base salaries, or regular pay, increased 3.7 per cent, roughly in line with the 3.8 per cent gain in August. A labour ministry official cited a steady rise in base salaries this year as a factor behind the improvement in real wages.

• Overtime pay growth in September stood at 3.6 per cent, down from August's revised 4.9 per cent rise.

• Special payments, consisting mostly of volatile one-time bonuses, jumped 32.6 per cent in September after a revised 1.8 per cent increase in August. The ministry said the…

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