Israel is set to vote on Tuesday, marking its first national election since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, with Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, security record and political future at the centre of the campaign.
Voters are weighing his handling of the attack and the conflicts that followed against concerns over military service exemptions, judicial reforms and the rising cost of living.
With Netanyahu facing a challenge from rival parties, the election is expected to test his ability to retain power after years of conflict and political divisions.
However, with no single party expected to win a majority in the 120-member Knesset, the next government will depend on post-election coalition negotiations as much as the vote itself.
What will decide Israel’s election
Israel’s first national election since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack is widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. While the attack and the security failures surrounding it remain central to the campaign, the debate has focused largely on Netanyahu’s accountability, his handling of the aftermath and his leadership rather than Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which has broad domestic support.
One of the biggest issues is the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from compulsory military service. With Israel facing a shortage of soldiers and reservists repeatedly called up during wars, the exemptions have fuelled resentment among secular Israelis. Netanyahu’s dependence on ultra-Orthodox parties has made the issue particularly contentious, with his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, promising to end the exemptions.
Netanyahu’s proposed judicial overhaul, which triggered mass protests in 2023, remains another point of division. Critics see the changes as an attempt to weaken the Supreme Court and undermine democratic institutions, while Netanyahu has defended them as a way to curb judicial power. The economy and the rising cost of living are also concerns, although they have received relatively little attention during the campaign despite many Israelis struggling with affordability.
Leadership is likely to be a decisive factor, with voters weighing Netanyahu’s experience and security record against criticism of his handling of October 7 and the wars that followed.However, neither of the main political blocs is advocating a major shift on the Palestinian question: both are dominated by parties that support Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state. With no party expected to win an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, the outcome will also depend on which leader can assemble a governing coalition.
Who are the leading candidates?
Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has been in power for much of the period since 2009. His supporters see him as a strong leader capable of defending Israel, but his political standing has been weakened by the security failures surrounding Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, his corruption trial and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza, which he denies. His Likud party has faced a decline in opinion polls, though Netanyahu remains a formidable political survivor and is seeking to form a broad national government.
Gadi Eisenkot: The former military chief, 66, leads the centrist Yashar party and has positioned himself as a security-focused alternative to Netanyahu. Having lost his son in combat in Gaza, Eisenkot has highlighted his military background and personal sacrifices. He has also pledged to end the exemptions from compulsory military service enjoyed by ultra-Orthodox men, an issue that has become a major source of public anger.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid: Former prime ministers Bennett, 54, and Lapid have joined forces under a new party called Together. Bennett is a former commando and a right-wing politician, while Lapid comes from the centre. Despite their different political backgrounds, the two previously worked together to oust Netanyahu in 2021. Their campaign has focused on national unity and getting Israel back on track after years of conflict and political division.
Avigdor Lieberman: The former defence minister, 68, leads the right-wing Israel Our Home party, which draws considerable support from Israel’s ex-Soviet immigrant community. Once a close ally of Netanyahu, Lieberman left his government in 2018, accusing him of being too soft on Palestinian militants in Gaza. He has since become one of the prime minister’s most vocal critics.
Yair Golan: The former general, 64, heads the Democrats, a left-wing party formed from the remnants of Israel’s Labour party and Meretz. Golan was praised for helping rescue people from a site targeted during the October 7 attack.
Key figures backing Netanyahu
Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, 46, and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, 50, are prominent far-right allies of Netanyahu. Smotrich has pushed for expanding Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and opposed Palestinian statehood. Ben-Gvir has advocated tougher measures against Palestinian prisoners, capital punishment for convicted Palestinian militants and expanded gun ownership for Israelis. Both have also backed the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and Israeli resettlement of the enclave.
Netanyahu has also depended on the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism to maintain his governing coalitions. Their demand to preserve exemptions from compulsory military service for many ultra-Orthodox men has become increasingly contentious as Israel faces wartime manpower shortages.
Who could hold the balance of power?
Parties that are not firmly aligned with either major bloc could prove decisive in determining who forms the next government. These include Raam and the Joint List, which represent Israel’s Arab minority, as well as the new right-wing
People of Israel party and the centre-right Reservists party. Their final strength and willingness to join either camp could shape coalition negotiations after the vote.
With no party typically winning a majority outright, forming a coalition of at least 61 lawmakers is key to forming the government
How elections work in Israel
Israel follows a proportional representation system to elect the 120 members of its parliament, the Knesset. Voters choose political parties rather than individual candidates, and seats are distributed according to each party’s share of the national vote. Parties must secure at least 3.25% of the vote to enter parliament.
Since no single party has ever won an outright majority, forming a government typically requires alliances between multiple parties. The leader who can assemble a coalition with the support of at least 61 lawmakers can form the government, giving smaller parties considerable influence over negotiations and policy decisions.
The election comes after a period of political instability between 2019 and 2022, when Israel held repeated elections. Netanyahu’s current Knesset is among the few in the country’s history to have completed its full four-year term.