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Intel foundry push faces critical test after stock's 45% plunge in October

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Intel's core personal computer segment continues to drive roughly half of its total revenue, leaving the company vulnerable to broader market weakness that triggered its record monthly market drop. To handle surging data center demand, leadership redirected Oregon factory capacity away from its leading 18A process node toward older wafers, despite high-volume 18A production in Arizona. This operational pivot risks frustrating potential external customers who require reliable cutting-edge capacity. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan intends to announce a couple of new foundry clients over the next two quarters to reassure investors.

Key points

  • Reallocating factory resources to older wafer nodes risks alienating prospective external…: Reallocating factory resources to older wafer nodes risks alienating prospective external customers who require advanced manufacturing capacity.
  • Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan has embraced a more conservative spending strategy while prepa…: Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan has embraced a more conservative spending strategy while preparing to announce new customers within two quarters.
  • Analysts warn that failing to secure a major external client within the next year will se…: Analysts warn that failing to secure a major external client within the next year will severely exacerbate financial pressure on the firm.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

As Intel comes off its steepest stock drop since the 1970s due to a worsening outlook for the PC market, the chipmaker is facing intensifying pressure to get its flailing foundry business off the ground.

It's been an elusive task for Intel. The company has spent half a decade, and a good chunk of its $108 billion in capital expenditures over that stretch, trying to challenge Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. But it still has no marquee customer for its most advanced chips, and is primarily manufacturing chips for its own products.

Wall Street is losing patience. After the U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel in August 2025, and Nvidia followed with a $5 billion investment, the stock started to shoot up, ultimately rising sixfold over 10 months before peaking in June. Intel was finally finding its niche in the artificial intelligence boom, delivering central processors used for agentic AI, while optimism simultaneously grew over its fab aspirations.

Intel's story took a dramatic turn for the worse on Thursday, when the company said revenue this quarter will be between…

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