Finance1 min read

India bonds to stay hemmed in by oil, Treasury moves ahead of inflation data

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Bond traders are actively balancing conflicting market drivers as Brent crude eased to $91.80 per barrel while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%. A Reuters poll anticipates India's October consumer inflation will quicken to 5.93% from 5.54% recorded in September. Market participants are holding back ahead of Friday's 340-billion-rupee debt auction, which will test broader demand for local government securities.

Key points

  • Anticipated domestic inflation spikes are prompting traders to price in a 25-basis-point…: Anticipated domestic inflation spikes are prompting traders to price in a 25-basis-point or 50-basis-point Reserve Bank of India rate hike.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% is continuing to pressure India's overnigh…: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% is continuing to pressure India's overnight index swap rates.
  • An upcoming 340-billion-rupee government bond auction will serve as a crucial test of und…: An upcoming 340-billion-rupee government bond auction will serve as a crucial test of underlying investor appetite.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5% in Asian trade after October consumer-price data outstripped forecasts, spurring traders to ramp up bets on a larger Federal Reserve rate increase in December.

Markets await India's October inflation reading later in the day, with a Reuters poll forecasting annual consumer inflation at 5.93%, up from 5.54% in September. An upside surprise could entrench expectations of further RBI tightening next month.

Indian government bonds are anticipated to trade between softer oil prices and rising US yields. The market is waiting for domestic inflation data that could influence the Reserve Bank of India's rate strategy. A Reuters poll estimates an increase in annual consumer inflation, potentially leading to further tightening by the RBI. Investors are cautious ahead of a significant bond auction scheduled for Friday.

Softer crude may provide some relief. Brent fell 1% in Asian trade to $91.80 a barrel, easing pressure on oil-importing India's inflation outlook, currency and public finances.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield is expected to move between 7.18% and 7.23%, according to a private-bank trader. It ended…

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