Recent economic indicators, including new unemployment claims dropping to a 57-year low, have underscored the strength of the labor market despite Middle East tensions. This resilience has fueled expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets pricing in a 71% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate hike following calls from two officials for steady increases. Tighter policy typically diminishes the appeal of non-yielding bullion, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its end-2026 forecast to $4,150 per ounce. Meanwhile, Poland's central bank reached its 700-metric-ton reserve target and signaled that further purchases are possible.
Key points
Global central banks are maintaining hawkish monetary stances, with the Bank of England h…: Global central banks are maintaining hawkish monetary stances, with the Bank of England hiking rates for the first time in over three years.
Financial markets are pricing in a 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise in…: Financial markets are pricing in a 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
Central bank gold accumulation persists, as Poland achieved its 700-metric-ton reserve go…: Central bank gold accumulation persists, as Poland achieved its 700-metric-ton reserve goal with potential for further acquisitions.
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Fundamentals
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,103.55 per ounce by 0023 GMT, and remained on track for a weekly gain of 5.9% so far. US gold futures for December delivery steadied at $4,112.80. * The US non-farm payrolls report is due at 1330 GMT.The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits slipped to a 57-year low last week, pointing to labor market resilience, though uncertainty over the drawn-out conflict in the Middle East is constraining hiring.
Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday made a case for modest and steady interest rate increases to tackle above-target inflation, in the first round of comments from central bankers after Democrats won control of congress and made gains at the state level in elections that could change the path of price pressures in the economy.
Traders currently see a 71% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.
The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in…
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